[ad_1]
The US
Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday morning is the week’s main event. His remarks on the economic outlook are expected to reaffirm the US central bank’s resolve to keep raising rates to curb decades-high inflation, though he’s not likely to specify to how big officials will go when they meet in September.
Policymakers raised rates by 75 basis points in July for the second straight meeting and have said that a similar hike could be on the table again — or potentially a smaller, half-point move — depending on the data.
Economic data in the coming week includes the government’s July personal income and spending report, which will help shape third-quarter growth estimates. Inflation-adjusted outlays on goods and services are projected to have firmed a bit in July after soft readings the previous two months.
The report’s personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses for its inflation target, is forecast to settle back after energy costs plunged. Other data include revised second-quarter gross domestic product, durable goods orders and new home sales for July, and the August S&P Global manufacturing and services surveys.
Asia
China’s biggest banks on Monday are likely to lower the interest rate they charge their best customers, after the People’s Bank of China cut borrowing costs on August 15.
Meanwhile, coronavirus infections have surged to a three-month high, with tourist destinations worst hit. The current wave of infections is testing Beijing’s Covid-zero policy as the government seeks to strike a balance between containing the virus and maintaining economic growth.
Extreme high temperatures and low precipitation since July create more economic challenges for China. The province of Sichuan activated its highest emergency response on Sunday to deal with “extremely outstanding” power supply deficiencies, adding to manufacturers’ woes in the region as they shut down factories.
Indonesia’s central bank may retain its outlier status in a world where central banks have been delivering large hikes, though more economists see the potential for an increase at Tuesday’s meeting after the nation’s inflation accelerated in July.
The Bank of Korea (BoK) meets Thursday amid growing fears that further half-percentage hikes may pop a household debt bubble. Those concerns could prompt governor Rhee Chang-yong to revert to a 25 basis point move before he jets off to Jackson Hole. The BoK decision follows the latest preliminary export figures earlier in the week that will offer a pulse check of global trade so far in August.
In Japan, board member Toyoaki Nakamura will deliver the BoJ’s latest view on the economy and prices in a speech on Thursday ahead of Tokyo inflation numbers Friday.
Pakistan’s central bank, which has hiked rates by 525 basis points this year, is expected to keep them steady when policymakers meet.
Bloomberg News. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
